Just submitted by my team the Dengue Forecasting Data Challenge predictions – White House?

Maybe, if lucky we are going to go to the White House


“NOAA is America’s environmental intelligence agency. We provide timely, reliable, and actionable information — based on sound science — every day to millions of Americans,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “NOAA’s local weather and climate data and models, provide a foundation for the public health community to predict the next outbreak of infectious disease, such as dengue, and ensure they are prepared to meet these challenges head- on.”

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Complexity, Criticality, and Computation (C3) and beyond…

Complex systems is a new approach to science, engineering, health, management, and any other field that studies how relationships between parts give rise to the collective emergent behaviours of the entire system, and how the system interacts with its environment. The methods are not necessarily new (at least for physicists) but the way to approach problems is totally novel. The holistic approach and the focus of inquiry is totally different and transcends different disciplines’ methods. The focus is mainly the analysis of the underlying ”connectome” for detection of causal hotspots, attribution of patterns to causal factors, and design (where management is part of the design).

What makes a system ‘complex’? A system can be thought of as complex if its dynamics cannot be easily predicted, or explained, as a linear summation of the individual dynamics of its components. In other words, the many constituent microscopic parts bring about macroscopic phenomena that cannot be understood by considering a single part alone (‘the whole is more than the sum of the parts’). There is a growing awareness that complexity is strongly related to criticality: the behaviour of dynamical spatiotemporal systems at an order/disorder phase transition where scale invariance prevails. This is an important point, where criticality actually means optimality and resilience. Many theorems have been proven this result for many complex systems. At the moment, many bio-inspired technologies are designed by mimicking the optimal patterns in nature.

Complex systems can also be viewed as distributed information-processing systems, particularly in the domains of computational neuroscience, health, bioinformatics, systems biology and artificial life. That is why information theory based models are the majority of models used to analyze and design complex systems together with network and decision sciences. Consciousness emerging from neuronal activity and interactions, cell behaviour resultant from gene regulatory networks and swarming behaviour are all examples of global system behaviour emerging as a result of the local interactions of the individuals (neurons, genes, animals). Can these interactions be seen as a generic computational process? This question is a relevant questions linking computation to complexity and criticality with the aim of a general theory and methods.

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A writer is not so much someone who has something to report about facts but he is someone who has found a process that will create new things he would not have thought of if he had not started to write them

Late night thoughts because it always happens like this for who knows.

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Uncovering disease-disease relationships through the incomplete interactome

Excellent paper but completely based on genetical info; working on something coupled to the Environment.


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A ”system model” … for ”The elegant art of not giving a shit” … something useful I should learn more given the state of ”the world”…

but maybe I do not know it well because I am too good …

Giving a shit does not necessarily mean you’re doing anything useful, but it makes it seem like you are. It feels like there’s some kind of justice that you’re getting closer to with every moment you give a shit. But that’s not true, because giving a shit, by itself, is only thinking — and thinking has little use aside from figuring out what to do.

This illuminates one of our most stubborn, silly beliefs about human thinking: that most of it is worthwhile, that it’s actually getting you somewhere. Most thoughts just fill up your head and distance you from the life that’s still unfolding in front of you. They’re not leading to any important decisions or insights, they’re just taking over your present moment, and possibly shortening your life on the other end too.

We often believe that our thoughts are accomplishing something just because they’re emotionally charged, or because they’re “about” something we consider important, like fairness, respect, or the state of society.

No. They are useful only insofar as they get you to move your body and do something useful. 

This isn’t to say that action is always necessary when it comes to responding to life’s countless little annoyances, rudenesses, and unfairnesses. In fact, usually it isn’t. Often there’s nothing you can do, or nothing you’re willing to do. That’s fine. In those cases, which I think represent the vast majority of cases, you’re better off not giving a shit.

Not giving a shit sounds like apathy, but it’s not. It’s simply a refusal to waste your energy and time on thoughts you’re not going to act on. So when you do give a shit, make sure that the point of this shit-giving is to figure out what you’re actually going to do in response to what happened, and then move on to the action part.


More here to follow up…


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Only those who trust, can find love and happiness. And only those who love, can be betrayed.


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I have been thinking about unfolding quite a lot recently and I came out with the idea that the ability to unfold increases with performing retrograde exercise over and over again. Retrograding is essentially like repeating an action backward over and over again. More will follow on this idea that has huge repercussion in the way I do my work and envision my life. I truly believe the retrograde exercise is not done for understanding better ”mechanisms” or for the sake of making them BUT for improving patterns and/or for finding sources of those patterns. At the end people care about patterns — and here I emphasize the word PATTERNS — that means outstandingly beautiful and repeating expressions of intentions and/or self organization. People remember patterns and not mechanisms, the latter both because those may be know but also because they are not the results in front of our eyes that help in decision making or any sort of introspective well-being.

At soon.


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