Interesting work about meningitis in Africa. This work has been done also by my incoming PhD student from Columbia University. It seems like this work can inform when to increase surveillance since it provides a set of predictors of meningitis outbreaks. The validation of the model is not performed for a very long period of time and the spatial and uncertainty component seems missing. I wonder whether there are alternative states (e.g. for different values of environmental factors) in outbreak events. I also wonder whether different types of meningitis are affected by the same set of environmental factors. The authors seem to neglect any socio-behavioral feature that may be quite predominant in the transmission of disease. In any event, good work because it generates questions and further work.
All in all I really would like to see a physical based model for meningitis. Further work for next year!